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Measuring Human Cryptanalysis Effort

Schneier on Security · · International · AI Governance

Cryptographer Matthew Green has launched a site that estimates the total research effort spent analyzing major public-key cryptographic algorithms, drawing on roughly sixteen thousand papers to convert published cryptanalysis into approximate researcher-years per algorithm.

Why this matters: The security of most encrypted communications rests on assumptions — that certain math problems are hard enough that no one has quietly figured out how to break them. This project tries to measure how hard the world has actually looked. If an algorithm has received very little scrutiny, that is a risk hiding in plain sight. Standards bodies, developers, and anyone deploying encryption for sensitive data have a real interest in knowing whether the foundations they are building on have been seriously stress-tested or just trusted by habit.

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